Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marquette Golden Eagles v Xavier Musketeers

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

90%

10%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marquette Golden Eagles (Local)

Prediction 89.83%1.11fair odd

EV -3.88%

Edge -3.63%

Kelly -55.48%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

89.46%89.88%89.83%90.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.041.061.061.0796.15%94.34%94.34%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Xavier Musketeers (Visit)

Prediction 10.17%9.83fair odd

EV +1.71%

Edge +0.171%

Kelly +0.190%

Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

9.58%10.12%10.17%10.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

9.009.449.4010.0011.11%10.59%10.64%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marquette Golden Eagles (Local): 89.83%; Xavier Musketeers (Visit): 10.17%. For Xavier Musketeers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.83. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.78%E -4.51%K -79.69%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +1.71%E +0.171%K +0.190%G +0.003%	4.3%	2026-02-25 21:14
DraftKings🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.88%E -3.63%K -55.48%G +0.000%	9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -3.37%E -0.355%K -0.397%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-02-25 20:10
Fanatics🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.78%EV -3.88%E -3.63%K -55.48%G +0.000%	9.40I 10.64%NM 10.22%EV -4.39%E -0.467%K -0.523%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-02-25 20:14
Fliff🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 89.94%EV -6.58%E -6.33%K -164.45%G +0.000%	9.30I 10.75%NM 10.06%EV -5.41%E -0.581%K -0.651%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-02-25 21:15
theScore Bet🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.78%E -4.51%K -79.69%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -8.46%E -0.940%K -1.06%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-02-25 20:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.06I 94.34%NM 92.18%	12.50I 8.00%NM 7.82%	2.3%	2026-02-26 00:00