Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maine Black Bears v Oregon Ducks

Kickoff: 2026-11-14 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

91%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maine Black Bears (Local)

Prediction 8.56%11.68fair odd

EV +11.31%

Edge +0.870%

Kelly +0.942%

Growth +0.107%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

7.28%8.56%8.56%8.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

11.0012.0012.0013.009.09%8.33%8.33%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oregon Ducks (Visit)

Prediction 91.44%1.09fair odd

EV -5.82%

Edge -5.65%

Kelly -193.96%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

91.44%91.44%91.44%92.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.021.021.021.0398.04%97.56%97.56%97.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maine Black Bears (Local): 8.56%; Oregon Ducks (Visit): 91.44%. For Maine Black Bears (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.68. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
William Hill🎯	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +11.31%E +0.870%K +0.942%G +0.107%	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -6.73%E -6.60%K -336.66%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-11-13 23:55
BetMGM🎯	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -5.82%E -0.529%K -0.582%G +0.000%	1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.82%E -5.65%K -193.96%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-13 23:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	14.29I 7.00%NM 6.84%	1.05I 95.24%NM 93.16%	2.2%	2026-11-13 23:55

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