Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

LSU Tigers v Duke Blue Devils

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

80%

20%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

LSU Tigers (Local)

Prediction 79.72%1.25fair odd

EV -3.54%

Edge -2.93%

Kelly -16.86%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

78.43%79.70%79.83%80.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.171.191.191.2185.47%83.89%83.68%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Duke Blue Devils (Visit)

Prediction 20.28%4.93fair odd

EV +1.41%

Edge +0.282%

Kelly +0.353%

Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.09%20.30%20.17%21.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.404.694.705.0022.73%21.34%21.28%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: LSU Tigers (Local): 79.72%; Duke Blue Devils (Visit): 20.28%. For Duke Blue Devils (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.93. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.93%E -5.03%K -32.96%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +1.41%E +0.282%K +0.353%G +0.005%	4.7%	2026-03-28 01:54
DraftKings🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -5.14%E -4.32%K -27.03%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -0.617%E -0.126%K -0.158%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-03-28 00:00
Fanatics🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.34%E -3.62%K -21.69%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -2.64%E -0.551%K -0.696%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-28 01:50
BetMGM🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.34%E -3.62%K -21.69%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -3.66%E -0.770%K -0.976%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-03-27 23:45
Unibet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.34%E -3.62%K -21.69%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -4.67%E -0.994%K -1.26%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-27 17:29
Bally Bet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.34%E -3.62%K -21.69%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -4.67%E -0.994%K -1.26%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-27 17:30
theScore Bet🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.93%E -5.03%K -32.96%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -6.70%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-28 01:50
Fliff🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -6.73%E -5.75%K -39.59%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -6.70%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-28 01:55
FanDuel🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -3.54%E -2.93%K -16.86%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -10.76%E -2.44%K -3.16%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-28 01:55
BetRivers🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -5.14%E -4.32%K -27.03%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -10.76%E -2.44%K -3.16%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-27 17:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.22I 81.97%NM 81.17%	5.26I 19.01%NM 18.83%	1.0%	2026-03-28 01:40
Novig◎	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.49%	4.95I 20.20%NM 19.51%	3.5%	2026-03-28 01:45