Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Cardinals v Virginia Cavaliers

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

90%

10%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Cardinals (Local)

Prediction 90.22%1.11fair odd

EV -2.56%

Edge -2.37%

Kelly -32.01%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

88.73%90.15%90.83%91.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.031.051.051.0897.09%95.12%95.24%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virginia Cavaliers (Visit)

Prediction 9.78%10.23fair odd

EV +7.57%

Edge +0.688%

Kelly +0.757%

Growth +0.057%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

8.64%9.85%9.17%11.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

8.509.318.6311.0011.76%10.75%11.59%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louisville Cardinals (Local): 90.22%; Virginia Cavaliers (Visit): 9.78%. For Virginia Cavaliers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.23. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.17%E -5.93%K -154.25%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +7.57%E +0.688%K +0.757%G +0.057%	5.2%	2026-02-22 15:55
DraftKings🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 90.83%EV -4.37%E -4.12%K -72.76%G +0.000%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV +2.68%E +0.255%K +0.282%G +0.008%	3.9%	2026-02-22 15:30
FanDuel🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 90.83%EV -7.07%E -6.87%K -235.74%G +0.000%	10.20I 9.80%NM 9.17%EV -0.257%E -0.025%K -0.028%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-02-22 15:34
Fliff🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.29%EV -5.27%E -5.02%K -105.35%G +0.000%	8.75I 11.43%NM 10.71%EV -14.44%E -1.65%K -1.86%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-02-22 16:29
BetMGM🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -2.56%E -2.37%K -32.01%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -16.88%E -1.99%K -2.25%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-02-22 15:50
Bally Bet🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.27%E -5.02%K -105.35%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -16.88%E -1.99%K -2.25%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-02-22 15:35
BetRivers🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.27%E -5.02%K -105.35%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -16.88%E -1.99%K -2.25%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-02-22 15:39
Unibet🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.27%E -5.02%K -105.35%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -16.88%E -1.99%K -2.25%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-02-22 15:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.09I 91.74%NM 88.43%	8.33I 12.00%NM 11.57%	3.7%	2026-02-22 16:55
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 91.49%	10.75I 9.30%NM 8.51%	9.3%	2026-02-22 16:35