Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Cardinals v Vermont Catamounts

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

97%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Cardinals (Local)

Prediction 96.58%1.04fair odd

EV -2.45%

Edge -2.43%

Kelly -245.13%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

95.41%96.58%96.26%98.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.011.011.01100.00%99.34%99.01%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vermont Catamounts (Visit)

Prediction 3.42%29.26fair odd

EV +74.27%

Edge +1.46%

Kelly +1.49%

Growth +1.10%

assuming max odds 51.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

1.92%3.42%3.74%4.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

21.0032.6726.0051.004.76%3.06%3.85%1.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louisville Cardinals (Local): 96.58%; Vermont Catamounts (Visit): 3.42%. For Vermont Catamounts (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 29.26. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 51.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +74.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 98.08%EV -3.42%E -3.42%K +0.000%G +0.000%	51.00I 1.96%NM 1.92%EV +74.27%E +1.46%K +1.49%G +1.10%	2.0%	2026-03-16 03:55
theScore Bet🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -2.45%E -2.43%K -245.13%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV -11.16%E -0.429%K -0.446%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-03-16 15:10
Fanatics🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -2.45%E -2.43%K -245.13%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV -28.24%E -1.34%K -1.41%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-03-21 10:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%	1.0%	2026-03-21 11:15
Novig◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 66.23%	2.00I 50.00%NM 33.77%	48.0%	2026-03-21 15:54