The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Louisville Cardinals v Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Cardinals (Local)

Prediction 77.78%1.29fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -11.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.19%77.81%77.63%79.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.211.2584.75%82.17%82.64%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Visit)

Prediction 22.22%4.50fair odd
EV +2.23%
Edge +0.486%
Kelly +0.620%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.42%22.19%22.37%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.254.204.6025.00%23.53%23.81%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louisville Cardinals (Local): 77.78%; Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Visit): 22.22%. For Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.50. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -8.23%E -6.97%K -45.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV +2.23%E +0.486%K +0.620%G +0.014%6.5%2026-03-01 17:25
BetMGM🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.11%E -4.19%K -23.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +0.011%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-01 20:54
Fanatics🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.34%E -3.53%K -18.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -2.21%E -0.503%K -0.650%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-01 16:59
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.56%E -2.87%K -14.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -6.66%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-01 18:04
Unibet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -5.89%E -4.87%K -28.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.66%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 18:59
BetRivers🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -5.89%E -4.87%K -28.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.66%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 18:59
Bally Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -5.89%E -4.87%K -28.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.66%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 18:59
FanDuel🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -5.89%E -4.87%K -28.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -8.88%E -2.17%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 17:09
Fliff🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -5.89%E -4.87%K -28.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -8.88%E -2.17%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 20:54
Caesars🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.78%E -2.22%K -11.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -11.10%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-01 18:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%4.9%2026-03-01 20:39
Novig◎1.00I 100.00%NM 80.58%4.15I 24.10%NM 19.42%24.1%2026-03-01 20:34