Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kentucky Wildcats v James Madison Dukes

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 18:33 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

91%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kentucky Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 91.39%1.09fair odd

EV -2.21%

Edge -2.07%

Kelly -31.63%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

88.30%91.07%91.36%92.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.031.051.051.0797.09%95.24%95.24%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

James Madison Dukes (Visit)

Prediction 8.61%11.61fair odd

EV +5.06%

Edge +0.415%

Kelly +0.452%

Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 12.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

7.79%8.93%8.64%11.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

8.0010.4210.6312.2012.50%9.60%9.41%8.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kentucky Wildcats (Local): 91.39%; James Madison Dukes (Visit): 8.61%. For James Madison Dukes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.61. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.21%EV -5.87%E -5.70%K -195.65%G +0.000%	12.20I 8.20%NM 7.79%EV +5.06%E +0.415%K +0.452%G +0.023%	5.3%	2026-03-21 18:29
DraftKings🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.04%E -3.85%K -80.84%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +3.33%E +0.278%K +0.303%G +0.010%	3.6%	2026-03-21 18:29
Caesars🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.63%EV -4.04%E -3.85%K -80.84%G +0.000%	11.50I 8.70%NM 8.37%EV -0.971%E -0.084%K -0.092%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-03-21 18:28
BetMGM🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.04%E -3.85%K -80.84%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -5.28%E -0.480%K -0.528%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-03-21 18:29
theScore Bet🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.96%E -4.77%K -123.89%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -5.28%E -0.480%K -0.528%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-21 18:29
Fanatics🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.71%EV -4.04%E -3.85%K -80.84%G +0.000%	10.25I 9.76%NM 9.29%EV -11.73%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-21 18:29
Fliff🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 90.87%EV -5.87%E -5.70%K -195.65%G +0.000%	10.25I 9.76%NM 9.13%EV -11.73%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-21 18:29
Unibet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -2.21%E -2.07%K -31.63%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -22.50%E -2.50%K -2.81%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-21 18:29
Bally Bet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -2.21%E -2.07%K -31.63%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -22.50%E -2.50%K -2.81%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-21 18:29
BetRivers🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -3.13%E -2.95%K -52.13%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -31.11%E -3.89%K -4.44%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-21 18:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.08I 92.59%NM 91.14%	11.11I 9.00%NM 8.86%	1.6%	2026-03-21 18:30
Novig◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 92.09%	11.76I 8.50%NM 7.91%	7.5%	2026-03-21 18:29