Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kentucky Wildcats v Arkansas Razorbacks

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

93%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kentucky Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 92.73%1.08fair odd

EV -2.64%

Edge -2.51%

Kelly -52.71%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

91.51%92.79%92.50%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.021.031.031.0598.04%97.09%97.09%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arkansas Razorbacks (Visit)

Prediction 7.27%13.75fair odd

EV +23.62%

Edge +1.39%

Kelly +1.48%

Growth +0.349%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

5.66%7.21%7.50%8.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

11.0013.5812.7517.009.09%7.36%7.84%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kentucky Wildcats (Local): 92.73%; Arkansas Razorbacks (Visit): 7.27%. For Arkansas Razorbacks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.75. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -5.42%E -5.31%K -270.87%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +23.62%E +1.39%K +1.48%G +0.349%	3.9%	2026-03-04 15:28
DraftKings🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 93.95%EV -4.49%E -4.36%K -149.67%G +0.000%	16.00I 6.25%NM 6.05%EV +16.35%E +1.02%K +1.09%G +0.178%	3.3%	2026-03-04 15:34
BetMGM🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -4.49%E -4.36%K -149.67%G +0.000%	13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV -1.83%E -0.135%K -0.146%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-03-04 14:14
Fanatics🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -2.64%E -2.51%K -52.71%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV -12.74%E -1.06%K -1.16%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-03-04 14:30
theScore Bet🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.49%E -4.36%K -149.67%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -12.74%E -1.06%K -1.16%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-04 14:45
FanDuel🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -5.42%E -5.31%K -270.87%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -20.01%E -1.82%K -2.00%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-04 14:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 96.08%	25.00I 4.00%NM 3.92%	2.0%	2026-03-04 15:40