Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas St Wildcats v Cincinnati Bearcats

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

70%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas St Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 69.59%1.44fair odd

EV -3.96%

Edge -2.87%

Kelly -10.43%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.61%69.94%69.69%73.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.271.331.361.3878.74%75.00%73.53%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cincinnati Bearcats (Visit)

Prediction 30.41%3.29fair odd

EV +7.95%

Edge +2.24%

Kelly +3.12%

Growth +0.248%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.35%30.06%30.31%32.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.883.253.203.5534.72%30.74%31.25%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kansas St Wildcats (Local): 69.59%; Cincinnati Bearcats (Visit): 30.41%. For Cincinnati Bearcats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.29. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Unibet🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -10.92%E -8.53%K -39.01%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV +7.95%E +2.24%K +3.12%G +0.248%	6.3%	2026-03-04 16:55
Bally Bet🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -10.92%E -8.53%K -39.01%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV +7.95%E +2.24%K +3.12%G +0.248%	6.3%	2026-03-04 16:55
BetRivers🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.65%EV -11.62%E -9.15%K -43.04%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV +7.95%E +2.24%K +3.12%G +0.248%	6.9%	2026-03-04 16:55
DraftKings🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.36%E -3.94%K -14.88%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -1.17%E -0.360%K -0.520%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-03-04 15:34
BetMGM🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.36%E -3.94%K -14.88%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.69%E -0.841%K -1.22%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-04 14:14
Fliff🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 70.95%EV -8.84%E -6.74%K -28.50%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -2.69%E -0.841%K -1.22%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-04 16:55
Fanatics🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.96%E -2.87%K -10.43%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.73%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-04 15:30
theScore Bet🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.96%E -2.87%K -10.43%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.77%E -2.92%K -4.39%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-04 15:55
FanDuel🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -3.96%E -2.87%K -10.43%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -12.42%E -4.31%K -6.61%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-04 15:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.61%	3.57I 28.01%NM 26.39%	6.1%	2026-03-04 16:55