Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iowa State Cyclones v Syracuse Orange

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 21:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

71%

29%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iowa State Cyclones (Local)

Prediction 70.90%1.41fair odd

EV -2.87%

Edge -2.10%

Kelly -7.76%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

68.81%70.78%70.81%72.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.301.341.351.3776.92%74.46%74.07%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Syracuse Orange (Visit)

Prediction 29.10%3.44fair odd

EV +0.410%

Edge +0.119%

Kelly +0.167%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.82%29.22%29.19%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.003.243.253.4533.33%30.86%30.77%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iowa State Cyclones (Local): 70.90%; Syracuse Orange (Visit): 29.10%. For Syracuse Orange (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.410%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -5.71%E -4.29%K -17.30%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV +0.410%E +0.119%K +0.167%G +0.001%	4.2%	2026-03-21 05:00
Caesars🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.71%E -4.29%K -17.30%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.05%E -0.307%K -0.435%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-21 20:55
Fliff🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -7.84%E -6.03%K -26.12%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -3.96%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-21 05:00
Fanatics🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.58%E -2.63%K -9.95%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.41%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-03-21 21:14
FanDuel🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -5.00%E -3.73%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -5.41%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-21 21:09
theScore Bet🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.42%E -4.86%K -20.06%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -5.41%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-21 21:14
BetMGM🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.58%E -2.63%K -9.95%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-21 21:24
Unibet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -2.87%E -2.10%K -7.76%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -8.32%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-21 10:55
Bally Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.58%E -2.63%K -9.95%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -8.32%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-21 10:55
BetRivers🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.58%E -2.63%K -9.95%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.69%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-21 10:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.37I 72.99%NM 71.58%	3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%	2.0%	2026-03-21 21:20
Novig◎	1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%	3.8%	2026-03-21 21:04