Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iowa State Cyclones v Arizona St Sun Devils

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 23:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

79%

21%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iowa State Cyclones (Local)

Prediction 78.78%1.27fair odd

EV -3.88%

Edge -3.18%

Kelly -17.65%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

76.63%78.90%78.36%81.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.161.191.191.2286.21%83.96%84.03%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arizona St Sun Devils (Visit)

Prediction 21.22%4.71fair odd

EV +10.32%

Edge +1.98%

Kelly +2.46%

Growth +0.254%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

18.37%21.10%21.64%23.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.004.554.505.2025.00%21.98%22.22%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iowa State Cyclones (Local): 78.78%; Arizona St Sun Devils (Visit): 21.22%. For Arizona St Sun Devils (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.71. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.32%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -7.82%E -6.69%K -46.01%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +10.32%E +1.98%K +2.46%G +0.254%	4.7%	2026-03-05 23:27
DraftKings🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -7.03%E -5.96%K -39.08%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV +8.20%E +1.61%K +2.00%G +0.164%	4.4%	2026-03-05 23:30
Fliff🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 80.70%EV -8.61%E -7.42%K -53.81%G +0.000%	4.85I 20.62%NM 19.30%EV +2.89%E +0.597%K +0.752%G +0.022%	6.8%	2026-03-05 23:30
Unibet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -6.25%E -5.25%K -32.87%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-05 23:30
Bally Bet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -6.25%E -5.25%K -32.87%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-05 23:30
BetRivers🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -7.03%E -5.96%K -39.08%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-05 23:30
BetMGM🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.88%E -3.18%K -17.65%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.90%E -2.59%K -3.41%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-05 23:30
FanDuel🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -4.67%E -3.86%K -22.24%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -13.02%E -3.18%K -4.20%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-05 23:30
theScore Bet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.88%E -3.18%K -17.65%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.14%E -3.78%K -5.05%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-05 23:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74%	1.3%	2026-03-05 23:30
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 83.55%	5.08I 19.69%NM 16.45%	19.7%	2026-03-05 23:29