The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Iowa Hawkeyes v Virginia Cavaliers

Kickoff: 2026-03-23 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iowa Hawkeyes (Local)

Prediction 88.07%1.14fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -2.84%
Kelly -31.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.10%87.85%88.01%88.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.091.091.1093.46%92.00%91.74%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virginia Cavaliers (Visit)

Prediction 11.93%8.38fair odd
EV -1.01%
Edge -0.122%
Kelly -0.139%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.51%12.15%11.99%13.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.757.678.008.3014.81%13.05%12.50%12.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iowa Hawkeyes (Local): 88.07%; Virginia Cavaliers (Visit): 11.93%. For Virginia Cavaliers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 8.30, with an expected value of -1.01%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.12%E -2.84%K -31.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -16.52%E -2.36%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 15:30
Bally Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.12%E -2.84%K -31.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -16.52%E -2.36%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 15:30
Fanatics🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 88.14%EV -4.00%E -3.67%K -44.44%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.86%EV -3.40%E -0.419%K -0.478%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-23 12:04
DraftKings🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -4.00%E -3.67%K -44.44%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -4.59%E -0.574%K -0.656%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-23 14:44
BetMGM🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -4.00%E -3.67%K -44.44%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -4.59%E -0.574%K -0.656%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-23 16:54
Caesars🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -4.00%E -3.67%K -44.44%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -4.59%E -0.574%K -0.656%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-23 15:55
BetRivers🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -4.00%E -3.67%K -44.44%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -19.50%E -2.89%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-23 16:14
FanDuel🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.49%EV -4.88%E -4.52%K -61.00%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.51%EV -1.01%E -0.122%K -0.139%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-23 17:49
theScore Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.76%E -5.38%K -82.30%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -4.59%E -0.574%K -0.656%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-23 00:20
Fliff🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -5.76%E -5.38%K -82.30%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -10.55%E -1.41%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-23 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.15%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.85%1.3%2026-03-23 17:50
Novig◎1.09I 91.74%NM 88.43%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.57%3.7%2026-03-23 17:51