Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iowa Hawkeyes v Michigan Wolverines

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

37%

63%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iowa Hawkeyes (Local)

Prediction 37.38%2.68fair odd

EV -0.946%

Edge -0.357%

Kelly -0.573%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.14%37.38%37.33%38.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.402.502.502.6541.67%40.05%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michigan Wolverines (Visit)

Prediction 62.62%1.60fair odd

EV -4.19%

Edge -2.74%

Kelly -7.91%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

61.22%62.62%62.67%63.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.491.511.511.5367.11%66.18%66.23%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iowa Hawkeyes (Local): 37.38%; Michigan Wolverines (Visit): 62.62%. For Iowa Hawkeyes (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -0.946%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -0.946%E -0.357%K -0.573%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -6.07%E -4.05%K -12.14%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-02-22 16:40
DraftKings🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -2.81%E -1.08%K -1.76%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.82%E -3.17%K -9.26%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-02-22 15:30
Caesars🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.68%E -1.84%K -3.02%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.19%E -2.74%K -7.91%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-02-22 15:22
FanDuel🎯	2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%EV -5.81%E -2.30%K -3.82%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.84%EV -6.69%E -4.49%K -13.66%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-02-22 16:20
theScore Bet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.55%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.19%E -2.74%K -7.91%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-02-22 15:55
Fliff🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -8.42%E -3.44%K -5.81%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%EV -6.69%E -4.49%K -13.66%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-02-22 16:39
Unibet🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -10.29%E -4.29%K -7.35%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -4.82%E -3.17%K -9.26%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-02-22 15:59
BetRivers🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -10.29%E -4.29%K -7.35%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -5.44%E -3.60%K -10.67%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-02-22 16:00
Bally Bet🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -10.29%E -4.29%K -7.35%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -5.44%E -3.60%K -10.67%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-02-22 16:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%	6.0%	2026-02-22 16:55
Novig◎	2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%	1.46I 68.49%NM 63.32%	8.2%	2026-02-22 16:45