Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iona Gaels v Siena Saints

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

48%

52%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iona Gaels (Local)

Prediction 47.95%2.09fair odd

EV -5.06%

Edge -2.56%

Kelly -5.17%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.48%47.95%47.95%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.911.961.971.9852.36%51.02%50.76%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Siena Saints (Visit)

Prediction 52.05%1.92fair odd

EV -3.70%

Edge -2.00%

Kelly -4.36%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

51.48%52.05%52.05%52.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.781.801.791.8556.18%55.49%55.87%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iona Gaels (Local): 47.95%; Siena Saints (Visit): 52.05%. For Siena Saints (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.85, with an expected value of -3.70%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.06%E -2.56%K -5.17%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.70%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-07 16:09
Unibet🎯	1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -5.06%E -2.56%K -5.17%G +0.000%	1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -6.83%E -3.81%K -8.64%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-07 15:34
Bally Bet🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61%EV -5.54%E -2.81%K -5.71%G +0.000%	1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -6.83%E -3.81%K -8.64%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-03-07 15:34
BetRivers🎯	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV -6.02%E -3.07%K -6.27%G +0.000%	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -7.35%E -4.13%K -9.42%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-07 15:34
Fliff🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.42%E -4.41%K -9.25%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.31%E -3.50%K -7.88%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-03-07 16:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%	2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%	2.1%	2026-03-07 16:54