Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Indiana Hoosiers v Oregon Ducks

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

35%

65%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Indiana Hoosiers (Local)

Prediction 35.27%2.84fair odd

EV +0.516%

Edge +0.181%

Kelly +0.279%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.41%35.33%35.30%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.542.662.652.8539.37%37.59%37.74%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oregon Ducks (Visit)

Prediction 64.73%1.54fair odd

EV -0.961%

Edge -0.628%

Kelly -1.81%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.50%64.67%64.70%66.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.421.461.451.5370.42%68.49%68.97%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Indiana Hoosiers (Local): 35.27%; Oregon Ducks (Visit): 64.73%. For Indiana Hoosiers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.516%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +0.516%E +0.181%K +0.279%G +0.001%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -7.43%E -5.20%K -17.29%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-02-22 16:57
theScore Bet🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -1.25%E -0.446%K -0.693%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -8.08%E -5.69%K -19.24%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-02-22 16:45
DraftKings🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.77%E -1.77%K -2.81%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.55%E -2.38%K -7.25%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-02-22 17:49
Unibet🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.96%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.14%E -4.23%K -13.64%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-02-22 17:55
Bally Bet🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.96%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -6.79%E -4.71%K -15.43%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-02-22 17:55
BetRivers🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.96%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -7.43%E -5.20%K -17.29%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-02-22 17:55
BetMGM🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -10.06%E -3.95%K -6.49%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -0.961%E -0.628%K -1.81%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-02-22 17:50
Fliff🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -10.06%E -3.95%K -6.49%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -4.85%E -3.30%K -10.31%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-02-22 17:55
FanDuel🎯	2.54I 39.37%NM 36.82%EV -10.42%E -4.10%K -6.76%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV -4.20%E -2.84%K -8.75%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-02-22 17:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	3.03I 33.00%NM 32.37%	1.45I 68.97%NM 67.63%	2.0%	2026-02-22 17:55