The School of College Oddsodds.college
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Illinois Fighting Illini v Wisconsin Badgers

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Illinois Fighting Illini (Local)

Prediction 82.53%1.21fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -2.94%
Kelly -20.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.78%82.76%82.31%84.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.141.131.1789.29%87.80%88.50%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wisconsin Badgers (Visit)

Prediction 17.47%5.72fair odd
EV +9.20%
Edge +1.47%
Kelly +1.75%
Growth +0.161%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.31%17.24%17.69%18.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.255.555.406.2519.05%18.02%18.52%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Illinois Fighting Illini (Local): 82.53%; Wisconsin Badgers (Visit): 17.47%. For Wisconsin Badgers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.72. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -6.74%E -5.97%K -51.87%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +9.20%E +1.47%K +1.75%G +0.161%4.5%2026-03-04 16:34
Bally Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -6.74%E -5.97%K -51.87%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV +0.466%E +0.081%K +0.098%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 21:50
Unibet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -6.74%E -5.97%K -51.87%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV +0.466%E +0.081%K +0.098%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 21:50
BetRivers🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -7.57%E -6.76%K -63.07%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -2.16%E -0.385%K -0.469%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-04 20:05
Fanatics🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -3.44%E -2.94%K -20.25%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -5.65%E -1.05%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-04 20:00
Fliff🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -6.74%E -5.97%K -51.87%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -5.65%E -1.05%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-04 20:05
FanDuel🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.43%EV -6.74%E -5.97%K -51.87%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -7.40%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-04 20:00
BetMGM🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -3.44%E -2.94%K -20.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -8.27%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-04 20:05
theScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -5.92%E -5.19%K -42.27%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -8.27%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-04 20:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.12I 89.29%NM 87.29%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.71%2.3%2026-03-04 22:55
Novig◎1.00I 100.00%NM 84.33%5.38I 18.59%NM 15.67%18.6%2026-03-04 20:00