Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Idaho Vandals v Sacramento St Hornets

Kickoff: 2026-03-10 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Idaho Vandals (Local)

Prediction 83.43%1.20fair odd
EV -0.723%
Edge -0.608%
Kelly -3.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.09%83.43%85.33%85.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.121.111.1990.91%88.89%90.09%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sacramento St Hornets (Visit)

Prediction 16.57%6.03fair odd
EV +12.70%
Edge +1.87%
Kelly +2.19%
Growth +0.278%

assuming max odds 6.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.14%16.57%14.67%20.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.956.406.8022.22%16.81%15.63%14.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Idaho Vandals (Local): 83.43%; Sacramento St Hornets (Visit): 16.57%. For Sacramento St Hornets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.03. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.70%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.86%EV -6.56%E -5.86%K -54.69%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.14%EV +12.70%E +1.87%K +2.19%G +0.278%4.0%2026-03-10 17:59
BetRivers🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -8.23%E -7.48%K -82.31%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV +6.07%E +0.949%K +1.12%G +0.068%6.5%2026-03-10 18:00
Unibet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -8.23%E -7.48%K -82.31%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV +6.07%E +0.949%K +1.12%G +0.068%6.5%2026-03-10 18:00
Bally Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -8.23%E -7.48%K -82.31%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV +6.07%E +0.949%K +1.12%G +0.068%6.5%2026-03-10 18:00
Fliff🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -4.89%E -4.29%K -34.96%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -13.82%E -2.66%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-10 18:00
BetMGM🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -0.723%E -0.608%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -25.42%E -5.65%K -7.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-10 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.14I 87.72%NM 85.40%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.60%2.7%2026-03-10 18:00