Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Howard Bison v Norfolk St Spartans

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 20:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Howard Bison (Local)

Prediction 59.26%1.69fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.618%
Kelly -1.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.03%59.53%59.26%61.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.581.611.6766.23%63.12%62.11%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Norfolk St Spartans (Visit)

Prediction 40.74%2.45fair odd
EV -1.01%
Edge -0.414%
Kelly -0.704%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.32%40.47%40.74%42.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.352.402.4346.51%42.58%41.67%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Howard Bison (Local): 59.26%; Norfolk St Spartans (Visit): 40.74%. For Norfolk St Spartans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.43, with an expected value of -1.01%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -1.03%E -0.618%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-14 20:28
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.00%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 20:30
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -4.00%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -12.41%E -5.77%K -10.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 20:30
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.59%E -2.85%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.23%E -0.929%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-14 20:29
Unibet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -9.33%E -6.10%K -17.60%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -1.01%E -0.414%K -0.704%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-14 20:30
Bally Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -9.33%E -6.10%K -17.60%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -1.01%E -0.414%K -0.704%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-14 20:30
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.68%EV -10.51%E -6.96%K -20.62%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.32%EV -1.01%E -0.414%K -0.704%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 20:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.49I 67.11%NM 65.75%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.25%2.1%2026-03-14 20:30