The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Houston Cougars v UCF Knights

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Houston Cougars (Local)

Prediction 52.49%1.91fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -3.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.70%52.65%52.41%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.781.791.8557.47%56.10%56.02%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UCF Knights (Visit)

Prediction 47.51%2.10fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.91%47.35%47.59%48.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.951.981.982.0551.28%50.51%50.63%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Houston Cougars (Local): 52.49%; UCF Knights (Visit): 47.51%. For UCF Knights (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.05, with an expected value of -2.60%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -2.90%E -1.57%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.92%E -2.99%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-01 20:00
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.53%E -3.07%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.35%E -3.77%K -7.73%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-01 20:00
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -6.05%E -3.38%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -5.92%E -2.99%K -6.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 19:59
Bally Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -6.05%E -3.38%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61%EV -6.40%E -3.25%K -6.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 19:59
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -6.58%E -3.69%K -8.43%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV -6.87%E -3.51%K -7.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-01 19:59
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.10%E -4.01%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.97%E -2.49%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 20:00
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -8.68%E -4.99%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.60%E -1.27%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 20:00
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -8.68%E -4.99%K -11.72%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -7.35%E -3.77%K -7.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-01 19:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-03-01 20:00