Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gonzaga Bulldogs v Santa Clara Broncos

Kickoff: 2026-03-09 21:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

63%

37%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gonzaga Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 62.76%1.59fair odd

EV -3.97%

Edge -2.60%

Kelly -7.49%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.03%63.48%62.76%66.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.391.481.501.5371.94%67.76%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Santa Clara Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 37.24%2.69fair odd

EV +4.26%

Edge +1.52%

Kelly +2.37%

Growth +0.101%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.17%36.52%37.24%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.592.502.8040.00%38.59%40.00%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gonzaga Bulldogs (Local): 62.76%; Santa Clara Broncos (Visit): 37.24%. For Santa Clara Broncos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.69. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Fanatics🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -10.88%E -7.66%K -25.89%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV +4.26%E +1.52%K +2.37%G +0.101%	6.1%	2026-03-09 21:34
Fliff🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 66.83%EV -12.76%E -9.18%K -32.71%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV +4.26%E +1.52%K +2.37%G +0.101%	7.7%	2026-03-09 21:35
BetMGM🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -5.85%E -3.90%K -11.71%G +0.000%	2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -5.42%E -2.13%K -3.52%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-09 21:35
theScore Bet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.97%E -2.60%K -7.49%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.91%E -2.76%K -4.61%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-09 21:29
Unibet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.85%E -3.90%K -11.71%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.91%E -2.76%K -4.61%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-09 21:34
Bally Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.85%E -3.90%K -11.71%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.91%E -2.76%K -4.61%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-09 21:35
BetRivers🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -6.48%E -4.35%K -13.23%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -6.91%E -2.76%K -4.61%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-09 21:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%	4.2%	2026-03-09 21:35