Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Georgia Bulldogs v Virginia Cavaliers

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 17:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

57%

43%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Georgia Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 57.28%1.75fair odd

EV -2.05%

Edge -1.20%

Kelly -2.88%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.12%57.54%57.14%61.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.571.661.671.7163.69%60.17%59.70%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virginia Cavaliers (Visit)

Prediction 42.72%2.34fair odd

EV +5.94%

Edge +2.40%

Kelly +4.01%

Growth +0.238%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.77%42.46%42.86%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.232.202.4847.62%44.94%45.45%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Georgia Bulldogs (Local): 57.28%; Virginia Cavaliers (Visit): 42.72%. For Virginia Cavaliers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.34. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.94%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -10.07%E -6.41%K -17.66%G +0.000%	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV +5.94%E +2.40%K +4.01%G +0.238%	4.0%	2026-03-21 17:25
BetMGM🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -7.20%E -4.45%K -11.62%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV +0.387%E +0.165%K +0.287%G +0.001%	4.3%	2026-03-21 17:28
DraftKings🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -3.77%E -2.24%K -5.54%G +0.000%	2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -4.31%E -1.92%K -3.48%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-21 17:29
FanDuel🎯	1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -4.91%E -2.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%	2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -4.31%E -1.92%K -3.48%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-03-21 17:30
theScore Bet🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.34%E -2.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.02%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-21 17:29
Fliff🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.78%E -4.83%K -12.75%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.02%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-21 17:29
Unibet🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -2.05%E -1.20%K -2.88%G +0.000%	2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -7.73%E -3.58%K -6.66%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-21 17:29
Bally Bet🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -2.05%E -1.20%K -2.88%G +0.000%	2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -7.73%E -3.58%K -6.66%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-21 17:29
BetRivers🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -3.77%E -2.24%K -5.54%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -9.44%E -4.45%K -8.43%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-21 17:29
Fanatics🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.05%E -1.20%K -2.88%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -10.29%E -4.90%K -9.36%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-21 17:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%	2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%	1.0%	2026-03-21 17:30