Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Georgetown Hoyas v Butler Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 16:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Georgetown Hoyas (Local)

Prediction 64.01%1.56fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.922%
Kelly -2.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.91%64.09%63.70%67.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.471.481.5470.42%67.85%67.80%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Butler Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 35.99%2.78fair odd
EV +6.16%
Edge +2.09%
Kelly +3.16%
Growth +0.195%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.49%35.91%36.30%39.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.602.552.9541.67%38.41%39.22%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Georgetown Hoyas (Local): 64.01%; Butler Bulldogs (Visit): 35.99%. For Butler Bulldogs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -9.10%E -6.41%K -21.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV +6.16%E +2.09%K +3.16%G +0.195%4.3%2026-03-06 16:00
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.18%E -4.95%K -15.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.84%E -1.05%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-06 16:00
FanDuel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.70%EV -5.90%E -4.01%K -12.55%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.30%EV -7.15%E -2.77%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-06 16:00
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -4.62%E -3.10%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -8.23%E -3.23%K -5.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 16:00
Bally Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -4.62%E -3.10%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -8.23%E -3.23%K -5.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 16:00
BetRivers🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.26%E -3.55%K -10.96%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -8.23%E -3.23%K -5.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-06 16:00
Fliff🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.18%E -4.95%K -15.96%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -8.23%E -3.23%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-06 16:00
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -1.42%E -0.922%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -13.63%E -5.68%K -9.74%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-06 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.54I 64.94%NM 63.07%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.93%3.0%2026-03-06 16:00