Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Georgetown Hoyas v Butler Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 19:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

77%

23%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Georgetown Hoyas (Local)

Prediction 77.16%1.30fair odd

EV -3.55%

Edge -2.84%

Kelly -14.21%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

75.88%77.37%76.92%79.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.171.211.211.2585.47%82.87%82.64%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Butler Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 22.84%4.38fair odd

EV +5.08%

Edge +1.10%

Kelly +1.41%

Growth +0.072%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.28%22.63%23.08%24.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.904.284.204.6025.64%23.38%23.81%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Georgetown Hoyas (Local): 77.16%; Butler Bulldogs (Visit): 22.84%. For Butler Bulldogs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.38. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Unibet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -9.73%E -8.31%K -57.21%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV +5.08%E +1.10%K +1.41%G +0.072%	7.2%	2026-02-21 18:59
BetRivers🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -9.73%E -8.31%K -57.21%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV +5.08%E +1.10%K +1.41%G +0.072%	7.2%	2026-02-21 18:59
Bally Bet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -9.73%E -8.31%K -57.21%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV +5.08%E +1.10%K +1.41%G +0.072%	7.2%	2026-02-21 18:59
DraftKings🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -5.10%E -4.14%K -22.16%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV +0.508%E +0.115%K +0.149%G +0.001%	4.0%	2026-02-21 19:00
Fliff🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -7.41%E -6.18%K -37.06%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.06%E -0.967%K -1.27%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-02-21 18:59
Fanatics🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.55%E -2.84%K -14.21%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -6.35%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-02-21 18:59
FanDuel🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.64%E -5.49%K -31.62%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -6.35%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-02-21 19:00
theScore Bet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.87%E -4.81%K -26.67%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-02-21 18:59
BetMGM🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -4.32%E -3.49%K -18.02%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -10.91%E -2.80%K -3.76%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-02-21 19:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.22I 81.97%NM 79.60%	4.76I 21.01%NM 20.40%	3.0%	2026-02-21 19:00
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 80.58%	4.15I 24.10%NM 19.42%	24.1%	2026-02-21 18:59