Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Furman Paladins v Mercer Bears

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 22:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

54%

46%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Furman Paladins (Local)

Prediction 53.55%1.87fair odd

EV -4.15%

Edge -2.32%

Kelly -5.25%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.39%53.55%53.55%54.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.741.771.781.7957.47%56.56%56.18%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mercer Bears (Visit)

Prediction 46.45%2.15fair odd

EV -2.45%

Edge -1.17%

Kelly -2.23%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

45.31%46.45%46.45%47.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.962.001.982.1051.02%49.95%50.51%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Furman Paladins (Local): 53.55%; Mercer Bears (Visit): 46.45%. For Mercer Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -2.45%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Unibet🎯	1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -4.15%E -2.32%K -5.25%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -8.02%E -4.05%K -8.19%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-05 18:40
Bally Bet🎯	1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -4.15%E -2.32%K -5.25%G +0.000%	1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61%EV -8.49%E -4.31%K -8.75%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-03-05 18:40
BetRivers🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -4.69%E -2.63%K -6.01%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV -8.95%E -4.57%K -9.33%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-05 18:40
BetMGM🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.83%E -3.92%K -9.23%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.45%E -1.17%K -2.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-05 20:50
Fliff🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.83%E -3.92%K -9.23%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -7.09%E -3.55%K -7.09%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-05 22:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%	2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%	1.0%	2026-03-05 22:30