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Florida Atlantic Owls v South Alabama Jaguars

Kickoff: 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Florida Atlantic Owls (Local)

Prediction 81.41%1.23fair odd
EV -0.681%
Edge -0.558%
Kelly -3.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.49%80.83%81.63%82.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.171.171.2288.50%85.39%85.47%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

South Alabama Jaguars (Visit)

Prediction 18.59%5.38fair odd
EV +0.392%
Edge +0.073%
Kelly +0.089%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.57%19.17%18.37%22.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.985.005.4023.81%20.07%20.00%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Florida Atlantic Owls (Local): 81.41%; South Alabama Jaguars (Visit): 18.59%. For South Alabama Jaguars (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.38. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.392%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -4.75%E -4.06%K -27.95%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV +0.392%E +0.073%K +0.089%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-11 17:59
Unibet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -6.38%E -5.55%K -42.53%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -1.47%E -0.277%K -0.341%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-11 17:50
BetRivers🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.43%EV -8.01%E -7.09%K -61.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -1.47%E -0.277%K -0.341%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-11 17:50
Caesars🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.75%E -4.06%K -27.95%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -3.33%E -0.640%K -0.792%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-11 17:52
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -3.12%E -2.62%K -16.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -7.04%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-11 17:59
Bally Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -3.12%E -2.62%K -16.44%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -8.90%E -1.82%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-11 17:58
theScore Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -4.75%E -4.06%K -27.95%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -10.76%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-11 16:55
William Hill🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -6.38%E -5.55%K -42.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -11.69%E -2.46%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-11 17:59
BetMGM🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -0.681%E -0.558%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -21.92%E -5.22%K -6.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-11 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.25%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.75%1.3%2026-11-11 16:00
Novig◎1.18I 84.75%NM 80.53%4.88I 20.49%NM 19.47%5.2%2026-11-11 17:40

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