Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

East Carolina Pirates v UTSA Roadrunners

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 02:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

56%

44%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

East Carolina Pirates (Local)

Prediction 56.03%1.78fair odd

EV -3.64%

Edge -2.11%

Kelly -5.05%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.74%56.03%56.03%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.651.701.711.7260.61%58.91%58.48%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UTSA Roadrunners (Visit)

Prediction 43.97%2.27fair odd

EV -3.26%

Edge -1.48%

Kelly -2.71%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.86%43.97%43.97%45.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.072.112.082.2048.31%47.45%48.08%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: East Carolina Pirates (Local): 56.03%; UTSA Roadrunners (Visit): 43.97%. For UTSA Roadrunners (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.20, with an expected value of -3.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Unibet🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -3.64%E -2.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -8.53%E -4.10%K -7.90%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-14 02:15
Bally Bet🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -3.64%E -2.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -8.53%E -4.10%K -7.90%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-14 02:15
BetRivers🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -8.97%E -4.33%K -8.38%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-14 02:15
BetMGM🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.26%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-14 02:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.61%	2.27I 44.05%NM 42.39%	3.9%	2026-03-14 02:15