Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Duke Blue Devils v Baylor Bears

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

87%

13%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Duke Blue Devils (Local)

Prediction 87.01%1.15fair odd

EV -3.42%

Edge -3.08%

Kelly -31.05%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

84.72%86.80%87.21%87.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.081.101.101.1192.59%91.19%90.91%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Baylor Bears (Visit)

Prediction 12.99%7.70fair odd

EV +1.30%

Edge +0.167%

Kelly +0.191%

Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 7.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

12.16%13.20%12.79%15.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.107.127.007.8016.39%14.04%14.29%12.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Duke Blue Devils (Local): 87.01%; Baylor Bears (Visit): 12.99%. For Baylor Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.70. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.84%EV -6.03%E -5.58%K -75.33%G +0.000%	7.80I 12.82%NM 12.16%EV +1.30%E +0.167%K +0.191%G +0.002%	5.4%	2026-03-22 20:05
Fanatics🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.70%EV -6.03%E -5.58%K -75.33%G +0.000%	7.70I 12.99%NM 12.30%EV +0.000%E +0.000%K +0.000%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-03-22 20:05
DraftKings🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -4.29%E -3.90%K -42.86%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV -2.60%E -0.346%K -0.400%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-22 20:05
Caesars🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -4.29%E -3.90%K -42.86%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV -2.60%E -0.346%K -0.400%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-22 20:00
BetMGM🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -3.42%E -3.08%K -31.05%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -9.09%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-03-22 20:05
theScore Bet🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -6.03%E -5.58%K -75.33%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -9.09%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-22 19:59
Unibet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.42%E -3.08%K -31.05%G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.34%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-03-22 20:05
Bally Bet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.42%E -3.08%K -31.05%G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.34%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-03-22 20:04
BetRivers🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 84.72%EV -4.29%E -3.90%K -42.86%G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39%NM 15.28%EV -20.78%E -3.41%K -4.07%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-03-22 20:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.11I 90.09%NM 88.24%	8.33I 12.00%NM 11.76%	2.1%	2026-03-22 20:05
Novig◎	1.11I 90.09%NM 87.64%	7.87I 12.71%NM 12.36%	2.8%	2026-03-22 20:04