Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Drexel Dragons v Elon Phoenix

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 00:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

61%

39%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Drexel Dragons (Local)

Prediction 60.99%1.64fair odd

EV -6.07%

Edge -3.94%

Kelly -11.25%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.91%60.99%60.99%64.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.451.521.541.5468.97%65.79%64.94%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elon Phoenix (Visit)

Prediction 39.01%2.56fair odd

EV +1.42%

Edge +0.547%

Kelly +0.889%

Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.80%39.01%39.01%39.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.402.452.432.6041.67%40.78%41.15%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Drexel Dragons (Local): 60.99%; Elon Phoenix (Visit): 39.01%. For Elon Phoenix (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Fliff🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -11.56%E -7.97%K -25.70%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV +1.42%E +0.547%K +0.889%G +0.013%	7.4%	2026-03-14 00:34
Unibet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -6.07%E -3.94%K -11.25%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -5.21%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-14 00:34
Bally Bet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -6.07%E -3.94%K -11.25%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -5.21%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-14 00:35
BetMGM🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.07%E -3.94%K -11.25%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.38%E -2.66%K -4.56%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-03-14 00:34
BetRivers🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.68%E -4.37%K -12.61%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.38%E -2.66%K -4.56%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-14 00:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.98%	2.86I 34.97%NM 33.02%	5.9%	2026-03-14 00:35