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Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.48
assuming max odds 3.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dayton Flyers (Local): 66.39%; Penn State Nittany Lions (Visit): 33.61%. For Penn State Nittany Lions (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.837%.
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.06%E -5.04%K -17.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +0.837%E +0.279%K +0.419%G +0.004% | 4.8% | 2026-11-09 22:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -1.75%E -1.18%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -9.25%E -3.42%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-11-09 23:45 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56% | 4.2% | 2026-11-09 23:55 |
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