Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Creighton Bluejays v Providence Friars

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

81%

19%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Creighton Bluejays (Local)

Prediction 81.43%1.23fair odd

EV -1.47%

Edge -1.22%

Kelly -7.01%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

77.63%81.01%81.90%82.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.141.161.161.2187.72%86.04%86.21%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Providence Friars (Visit)

Prediction 18.57%5.38fair odd

EV +3.08%

Edge +0.555%

Kelly +0.677%

Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 5.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

17.29%18.99%18.10%22.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.205.085.205.5523.81%19.69%19.23%18.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Creighton Bluejays (Local): 81.43%; Providence Friars (Visit): 18.57%. For Providence Friars (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.38. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.71%EV -5.54%E -4.78%K -34.65%G +0.000%	5.55I 18.02%NM 17.29%EV +3.08%E +0.555%K +0.677%G +0.021%	4.2%	2026-02-26 16:25
Fanatics🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -4.73%E -4.04%K -27.82%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV +0.293%E +0.054%K +0.067%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-02-26 21:59
BetMGM🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.73%E -4.04%K -27.82%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -2.49%E -0.475%K -0.587%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-02-26 16:35
Unibet🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -6.36%E -5.53%K -42.39%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -3.42%E -0.658%K -0.815%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-02-26 19:20
Bally Bet🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -6.36%E -5.53%K -42.39%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -3.42%E -0.658%K -0.815%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-02-26 19:20
BetRivers🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -7.17%E -6.29%K -51.24%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -3.42%E -0.658%K -0.815%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-02-26 19:20
Fliff🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73%EV -7.17%E -6.29%K -51.24%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -5.28%E -1.04%K -1.29%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-02-26 19:20
FanDuel🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -4.73%E -4.04%K -27.82%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -14.57%E -3.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-02-26 21:44
theScore Bet🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -1.47%E -1.22%K -7.01%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -21.99%E -5.24%K -6.87%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-02-26 21:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.23I 81.30%NM 78.72%	4.55I 21.98%NM 21.28%	3.3%	2026-02-27 01:35
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 82.30%	4.65I 21.51%NM 17.70%	21.5%	2026-02-26 21:45