Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Clemson Tigers v USC Trojans

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 19:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Clemson Tigers (Local)

Prediction 32.24%3.10fair odd
EV -0.050%
Edge -0.016%
Kelly -0.024%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.80%32.24%31.96%33.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.952.953.1035.71%33.92%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

USC Trojans (Visit)

Prediction 67.76%1.48fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -7.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.35%67.76%68.04%69.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.401.401.4372.99%71.33%71.43%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Clemson Tigers (Local): 32.24%; USC Trojans (Visit): 67.76%. For Clemson Tigers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.102. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.100, with an expected value of -0.050%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -0.050%E -0.016%K -0.024%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -6.49%E -4.71%K -17.09%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 12:34
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -1.66%E -0.545%K -0.811%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.85%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-16 18:29
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.27%E -1.09%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.85%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 12:40
FanDuel🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -3.92%E -1.32%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-21 18:49
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.89%E -1.66%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.46%E -3.16%K -10.88%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-18 13:44
Bally Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.89%E -1.66%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.46%E -3.16%K -10.88%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-18 13:44
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.11%E -2.17%K -7.22%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-21 13:35
Fliff🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -7.17%E -5.23%K -19.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 16:04
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -8.11%E -2.85%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-16 21:39
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.72%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-18 20:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi3.03I 33.00%NM 32.37%1.45I 68.97%NM 67.63%2.0%2026-03-21 19:24
Novig3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%4.8%2026-03-21 18:55