Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cincinnati Bearcats v UCF Knights

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 19:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

82%

18%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cincinnati Bearcats (Local)

Prediction 81.97%1.22fair odd

EV +1.65%

Edge +1.33%

Kelly +6.87%

Growth +0.113%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

76.34%81.49%81.37%84.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.111.151.141.2490.09%86.62%87.72%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UCF Knights (Visit)

Prediction 18.03%5.55fair odd

EV +12.66%

Edge +2.03%

Kelly +2.41%

Growth +0.305%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

15.31%18.51%18.63%23.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.005.225.006.2525.00%19.15%20.00%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cincinnati Bearcats (Local): 81.97%; UCF Knights (Visit): 18.03%. For UCF Knights (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.55. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.66%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Fanatics🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -7.37%E -6.52%K -56.68%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +12.66%E +2.03%K +2.41%G +0.305%	4.5%	2026-02-21 18:59
theScore Bet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -9.01%E -8.12%K -81.89%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV +8.15%E +1.36%K +1.63%G +0.133%	6.8%	2026-02-21 18:59
Unibet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -6.55%E -5.74%K -46.78%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -2.66%E -0.493%K -0.605%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-02-21 18:59
Bally Bet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -6.55%E -5.74%K -46.78%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -2.66%E -0.493%K -0.605%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-02-21 18:59
DraftKings🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -2.45%E -2.06%K -12.90%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -9.87%E -1.97%K -2.47%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-02-21 19:00
FanDuel🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -5.73%E -4.98%K -38.20%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -9.87%E -1.97%K -2.47%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-02-21 19:00
BetRivers🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.55%E -5.74%K -46.78%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -9.87%E -1.97%K -2.47%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-02-21 18:59
Fliff🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.15%EV -5.73%E -4.98%K -38.20%G +0.000%	4.95I 20.20%NM 18.85%EV -10.77%E -2.18%K -2.73%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-02-21 18:59
BetMGM🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV +1.65%E +1.33%K +6.87%G +0.113%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -27.90%E -6.97%K -9.30%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-02-21 19:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%	4.55I 21.98%NM 20.73%	6.0%	2026-02-21 19:00
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 83.55%	5.08I 19.69%NM 16.45%	19.7%	2026-02-21 18:59