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Cal Baptist Lancers v Tarleton State Texans

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 19:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cal Baptist Lancers (Local)

Prediction 76.61%1.31fair odd
EV -4.23%
Edge -3.39%
Kelly -16.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.25%76.61%76.61%77.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.221.211.2583.33%82.10%82.64%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tarleton State Texans (Visit)

Prediction 23.39%4.28fair odd
EV -0.612%
Edge -0.144%
Kelly -0.188%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.02%23.39%23.39%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.104.254.2526.32%24.39%23.53%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cal Baptist Lancers (Local): 76.61%; Tarleton State Texans (Visit): 23.39%. For Tarleton State Texans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.25, with an expected value of -0.612%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.23%E -3.39%K -16.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -11.14%E -2.93%K -3.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-13 19:00
Fliff🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.68%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -7.63%E -1.93%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-13 18:59
Unibet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -7.30%E -6.03%K -34.74%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -0.612%E -0.144%K -0.188%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 19:00
Bally Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -7.30%E -6.03%K -34.74%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -0.612%E -0.144%K -0.188%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 19:00
BetRivers🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -0.612%E -0.144%K -0.188%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-13 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.27I 78.74%NM 76.65%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.35%2.7%2026-03-13 19:00