Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

BYU Cougars v Houston Cougars

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 19:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

89%

11%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

BYU Cougars (Local)

Prediction 88.62%1.13fair odd

EV -3.40%

Edge -3.12%

Kelly -37.81%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

87.51%88.63%88.51%89.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.051.071.071.0995.24%93.46%93.46%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Houston Cougars (Visit)

Prediction 11.38%8.79fair odd

EV +6.96%

Edge +0.740%

Kelly +0.828%

Growth +0.058%

assuming max odds 9.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

10.22%11.37%11.49%12.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

7.508.128.009.4013.33%12.32%12.50%10.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: BYU Cougars (Local): 88.62%; Houston Cougars (Visit): 11.38%. For Houston Cougars (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.79. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.96%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Fanatics🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.78%EV -5.17%E -4.84%K -73.93%G +0.000%	9.40I 10.64%NM 10.22%EV +6.96%E +0.740%K +0.828%G +0.058%	4.1%	2026-03-04 19:25
theScore Bet🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -6.06%E -5.72%K -101.02%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +2.41%E +0.267%K +0.301%G +0.007%	5.5%	2026-03-04 19:24
FanDuel🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -6.95%E -6.62%K -138.95%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -3.28%E -0.386%K -0.438%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-04 15:50
BetMGM🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -3.40%E -3.12%K -37.81%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -8.97%E -1.12%K -1.28%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-04 15:30
DraftKings🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -3.40%E -3.12%K -37.81%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -8.97%E -1.12%K -1.28%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-04 15:34
Fliff🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 87.83%EV -6.06%E -5.72%K -101.02%G +0.000%	7.65I 13.07%NM 12.17%EV -12.95%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-04 18:15
Unibet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -5.17%E -4.84%K -73.93%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -14.66%E -1.95%K -2.26%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-04 17:35
BetRivers🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -5.17%E -4.84%K -73.93%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -14.66%E -1.95%K -2.26%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-04 17:39
Bally Bet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -5.17%E -4.84%K -73.93%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -14.66%E -1.95%K -2.26%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-04 17:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.06I 94.34%NM 91.29%	11.11I 9.00%NM 8.71%	3.3%	2026-03-04 19:25