Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

BYU Cougars v Colorado Buffaloes

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

BYU Cougars (Local)

Prediction 43.13%2.32fair odd
EV +1.36%
Edge +0.577%
Kelly +1.01%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.90%42.82%43.15%44.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.242.222.3546.51%44.58%45.05%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Colorado Buffaloes (Visit)

Prediction 56.87%1.76fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -3.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.99%57.18%56.85%60.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.641.661.7164.10%61.09%60.24%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: BYU Cougars (Local): 43.13%; Colorado Buffaloes (Visit): 56.87%. For BYU Cougars (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +1.36%E +0.577%K +1.01%G +0.014%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -10.71%E -6.82%K -18.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 19:49
Bally Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV +1.36%E +0.577%K +1.01%G +0.014%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -11.28%E -7.23%K -20.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:49
BetRivers🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV +0.494%E +0.212%K +0.372%G +0.002%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -11.28%E -7.23%K -20.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 19:49
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.96%E -1.31%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.03%E -3.01%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-28 20:49
DraftKings🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.39%E -1.51%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.46%E -2.65%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-28 16:30
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.11%E -2.32%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.75%E -1.61%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-28 16:25
Caesars🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.11%E -2.32%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.03%E -3.01%K -7.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 16:38
Fliff🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.11%E -2.32%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.44%E -5.24%K -13.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 20:54
FanDuel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -6.84%E -3.17%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.69%EV -6.17%E -3.74%K -9.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-28 16:25
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.27%E -3.38%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.89%E -2.30%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%3.0%2026-02-28 20:44
Novig2.14I 46.73%NM 43.09%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%8.5%2026-02-28 19:04