Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baylor Bears v Colorado Buffaloes

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baylor Bears (Local)

Prediction 60.69%1.65fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -3.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.82%60.79%60.95%63.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.551.561.6167.57%64.68%63.90%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Colorado Buffaloes (Visit)

Prediction 39.31%2.54fair odd
EV +0.232%
Edge +0.091%
Kelly +0.150%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.72%39.21%39.05%41.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.442.452.5543.48%40.92%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Baylor Bears (Local): 60.69%; Colorado Buffaloes (Visit): 39.31%. For Colorado Buffaloes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.232%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -9.57%E -6.42%K -19.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV +0.232%E +0.091%K +0.150%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 22:50
Bally Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -9.57%E -6.42%K -19.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV +0.232%E +0.091%K +0.150%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 22:49
BetRivers🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -10.17%E -6.87%K -21.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV +0.232%E +0.091%K +0.150%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-06 22:49
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -4.71%E -3.00%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -1.73%E -0.693%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-06 23:10
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.71%E -3.00%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.70%E -1.51%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-06 20:55
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.71%E -3.00%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.70%E -1.51%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-06 20:10
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.50%E -2.20%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.66%E -2.36%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-06 20:14
Fliff🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.14%E -4.67%K -13.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -7.63%E -3.25%K -5.65%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-06 22:49
FanDuel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.00%EV -5.32%E -3.41%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.00%EV -8.02%E -3.43%K -5.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-06 20:45
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.28%E -1.42%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.59%E -4.17%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-06 20:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-03-07 01:35
Novig1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.74%8.5%2026-03-07 01:55