Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arkansas St Red Wolves v UL Monroe Warhawks

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 20:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

70%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arkansas St Red Wolves (Local)

Prediction 70.06%1.43fair odd

EV -4.02%

Edge -2.93%

Kelly -10.86%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

69.69%70.06%70.18%70.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.331.351.341.3775.19%74.18%74.63%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UL Monroe Warhawks (Visit)

Prediction 29.94%3.34fair odd

EV -4.19%

Edge -1.31%

Kelly -1.90%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.69%29.94%29.82%30.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.153.163.153.2031.75%31.65%31.75%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arkansas St Red Wolves (Local): 70.06%; UL Monroe Warhawks (Visit): 29.94%. For Arkansas St Red Wolves (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.43. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.37, with an expected value of -4.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Fanatics🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.02%E -2.93%K -10.86%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -5.69%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-07 20:09
BetMGM🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.72%E -3.47%K -13.11%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.19%E -1.31%K -1.90%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-07 20:05
Unibet🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -6.12%E -4.57%K -18.00%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -5.69%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-07 19:14
Bally Bet🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -6.12%E -4.57%K -18.00%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -5.69%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-07 19:14
BetRivers🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.67%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -5.69%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-07 19:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%	0.8%	2026-03-07 20:05