Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arkansas Razorbacks v Auburn Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arkansas Razorbacks (Local)

Prediction 48.21%2.07fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.569%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.75%48.51%47.95%51.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.951.972.0554.95%51.19%50.76%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Auburn Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 51.79%1.93fair odd
EV -0.048%
Edge -0.025%
Kelly -0.052%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.53%51.49%52.05%53.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.821.801.9356.50%54.81%55.56%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arkansas Razorbacks (Local): 48.21%; Auburn Tigers (Visit): 51.79%. For Auburn Tigers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.931. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.930, with an expected value of -0.048%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -1.17%E -0.569%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -6.78%E -3.77%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-01 16:39
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -3.58%E -1.79%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -8.33%E -4.71%K -10.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 16:29
DraftKings🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -4.54%E -2.29%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.19%E -2.27%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-01 16:29
Unibet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -4.54%E -2.29%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -7.30%E -4.08%K -9.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 17:54
Bally Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61%EV -5.02%E -2.55%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -7.30%E -4.08%K -9.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 17:54
BetRivers🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV -5.51%E -2.81%K -5.73%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -7.82%E -4.39%K -10.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-01 17:54
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.92%E -4.14%K -8.70%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.08%E -0.568%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-01 18:14
Fliff🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.92%E -4.14%K -8.70%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.78%E -3.77%K -8.48%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-01 18:14
FanDuel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -12.26%E -6.73%K -14.95%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -0.048%E -0.025%K -0.052%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-01 16:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%1.1%2026-03-01 18:20