Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arizona St Sun Devils v Houston Cougars

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

91%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arizona St Sun Devils (Local)

Prediction 91.43%1.09fair odd

EV -2.17%

Edge -2.03%

Kelly -30.96%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

89.46%91.37%91.43%93.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.031.051.051.0797.09%95.24%95.24%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Houston Cougars (Visit)

Prediction 8.57%11.67fair odd

EV +19.94%

Edge +1.42%

Kelly +1.53%

Growth +0.306%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

6.85%8.63%8.57%10.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

9.0011.6011.7014.0011.11%8.62%8.55%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arizona St Sun Devils (Local): 91.43%; Houston Cougars (Visit): 8.57%. For Houston Cougars (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.67. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.94%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 93.09%EV -4.91%E -4.72%K -122.75%G +0.000%	14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%EV +19.94%E +1.42%K +1.53%G +0.306%	3.3%	2026-02-21 16:00
BetMGM🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 93.15%EV -5.82%E -5.65%K -194.14%G +0.000%	14.00I 7.14%NM 6.85%EV +19.94%E +1.42%K +1.53%G +0.306%	4.2%	2026-02-21 16:55
Fanatics🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.78%EV -2.17%E -2.03%K -30.96%G +0.000%	9.40I 10.64%NM 10.22%EV -19.47%E -2.07%K -2.32%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-02-21 17:49
theScore Bet🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.08%E -2.91%K -51.36%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -22.89%E -2.54%K -2.86%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-02-21 17:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.05I 95.24%NM 93.16%	14.29I 7.00%NM 6.84%	2.2%	2026-02-21 19:35