Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alabama St Hornets v Southern Jaguars

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

28%

72%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alabama St Hornets (Local)

Prediction 27.52%3.63fair odd

EV +1.82%

Edge +0.491%

Kelly +0.673%

Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.66%27.25%27.52%28.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.353.523.503.7029.85%28.44%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Southern Jaguars (Visit)

Prediction 72.48%1.38fair odd

EV -3.60%

Edge -2.71%

Kelly -10.91%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

71.88%72.75%72.48%74.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.261.291.291.3379.37%77.42%77.52%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alabama St Hornets (Local): 27.52%; Southern Jaguars (Visit): 72.48%. For Alabama St Hornets (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +1.82%E +0.491%K +0.673%G +0.012%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -6.50%E -5.04%K -22.41%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-03-14 13:19
Unibet🎯	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV +0.442%E +0.121%K +0.167%G +0.001%	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -8.67%E -6.88%K -33.36%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-14 13:50
BetMGM🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.69%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%	1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.05%E -3.85%K -16.29%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-03-14 14:00
Fliff🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.69%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -7.95%E -6.26%K -29.44%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-03-14 14:05
Fanatics🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.44%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.60%E -2.71%K -10.91%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-14 16:59
FanDuel🎯	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -7.81%E -2.33%K -3.32%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -6.50%E -5.04%K -22.41%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-14 17:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24%	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.76%	2.9%	2026-03-14 17:00