Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alabama Crimson Tide v Texas Longhorns

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

91%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alabama Crimson Tide (Local)

Prediction 8.52%11.74fair odd

EV +27.76%

Edge +1.85%

Kelly +1.98%

Growth +0.550%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

6.43%8.36%8.64%9.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

9.8011.2610.8815.0010.20%8.88%9.20%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Texas Longhorns (Visit)

Prediction 91.48%1.09fair odd

EV -3.03%

Edge -2.86%

Kelly -50.47%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

90.49%91.64%91.36%93.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.021.041.041.0698.04%96.53%96.62%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alabama Crimson Tide (Local): 8.52%; Texas Longhorns (Visit): 91.48%. For Alabama Crimson Tide (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.74. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +27.76%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +27.76%E +1.85%K +1.98%G +0.550%	1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -5.77%E -5.60%K -192.43%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-03-01 16:45
Caesars🎯	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +10.72%E +0.825%K +0.894%G +0.096%	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.77%E -5.60%K -192.43%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-01 16:29
Fliff🎯	11.60I 8.62%NM 8.08%EV -1.20%E -0.103%K -0.113%G +0.000%	1.02I 98.04%NM 91.92%EV -6.69%E -6.56%K -334.38%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-01 16:49
BetMGM🎯	11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -2.05%E -0.178%K -0.195%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.86%E -4.67%K -121.45%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-01 16:34
theScore Bet🎯	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -6.31%E -0.574%K -0.631%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.86%E -4.67%K -121.45%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-01 16:50
Fanatics🎯	10.75I 9.30%NM 8.98%EV -8.44%E -0.785%K -0.866%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 91.02%EV -3.03%E -2.86%K -50.47%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-03-01 16:45
Unibet🎯	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -14.83%E -1.48%K -1.65%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.86%E -4.67%K -121.45%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-01 15:59
Bally Bet🎯	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -14.83%E -1.48%K -1.65%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.86%E -4.67%K -121.45%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-01 15:59
BetRivers🎯	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -14.83%E -1.48%K -1.65%G +0.000%	1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -5.77%E -5.60%K -192.43%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-01 15:59
FanDuel🎯	9.80I 10.20%NM 9.51%EV -16.53%E -1.69%K -1.88%G +0.000%	1.03I 97.09%NM 90.49%EV -5.77%E -5.60%K -192.43%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-03-01 16:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.75%	1.08I 92.59%NM 90.25%	2.6%	2026-03-01 16:54