The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Alabama Crimson Tide v Missouri Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 01:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alabama Crimson Tide (Local)

Prediction 84.37%1.19fair odd
EV -4.66%
Edge -4.13%
Kelly -35.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.96%84.57%84.39%87.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.111.121.1391.74%89.77%89.69%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Missouri Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 15.63%6.40fair odd
EV +17.22%
Edge +2.30%
Kelly +2.65%
Growth +0.456%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.79%15.43%15.61%17.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.206.107.5018.18%16.14%16.39%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alabama Crimson Tide (Local): 84.37%; Missouri Tigers (Visit): 15.63%. For Missouri Tigers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.40. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -7.19%E -6.54%K -71.92%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +17.22%E +2.30%K +2.65%G +0.456%4.2%2026-03-04 19:35
DraftKings🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -5.51%E -4.92%K -45.88%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV +5.50%E +0.815%K +0.956%G +0.053%4.1%2026-03-04 17:10
Fliff🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.45%EV -8.04%E -7.37%K -89.29%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.55%EV +0.029%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-05 01:29
Caesars🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.51%E -4.92%K -45.88%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -2.32%E -0.371%K -0.441%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 17:19
Unibet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.60%EV -6.35%E -5.72%K -57.72%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV -4.66%E -0.764%K -0.914%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-04 22:00
Bally Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.60%EV -6.35%E -5.72%K -57.72%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV -4.66%E -0.764%K -0.914%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-04 22:00
BetRivers🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.35%E -5.72%K -57.72%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -6.22%E -1.04%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-04 21:59
Fanatics🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.81%EV -4.66%E -4.13%K -35.86%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.19%EV -8.57%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-05 01:29
theScore Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.66%E -4.13%K -35.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -14.04%E -2.55%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 20:10
FanDuel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.51%E -4.92%K -45.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -14.04%E -2.55%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-04 20:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.15I 86.96%NM 85.29%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.71%1.9%2026-03-05 01:30
Novig◎1.00I 100.00%NM 85.69%5.99I 16.69%NM 14.31%16.7%2026-03-05 01:29