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Washington Mystics v Las Vegas Aces
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Washington Mystics (Local)
Prediction 32.23%3.10fair odd
EV +1.52%
Edge +0.482%
Kelly +0.707%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.84%32.19%32.56%34.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.932.903.1537.04%34.09%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Las Vegas Aces (Visit)
Prediction 67.77%1.48fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -3.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.85%67.81%67.44%70.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.411.411.4574.63%71.05%70.92%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Mystics (Local): 32.23%; Las Vegas Aces (Visit): 67.77%. For Washington Mystics (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.52%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV +1.52%E +0.482%K +0.707%G +0.011% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -9.19%E -6.86%K -27.02%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-22 23:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV +1.52%E +0.482%K +0.707%G +0.011% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -9.19%E -6.86%K -27.02%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-22 23:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -0.092%E -0.030%K -0.044%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -5.12%E -3.66%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-22 23:28 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -0.092%E -0.030%K -0.044%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -5.12%E -3.66%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-22 23:28 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -1.70%E -0.558%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -4.44%E -3.15%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-22 23:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -1.70%E -0.558%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.12%E -3.66%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-22 23:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -2.35%E -0.775%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%EV -4.44%E -3.15%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-22 23:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -3.31%E -1.10%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.44%E -3.15%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-22 19:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.31%E -1.10%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.12%E -3.66%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-22 13:28 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -3.31%E -1.10%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -5.80%E -4.17%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-22 22:43 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.31%E -1.10%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.83%E -5.76%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-22 23:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.99I 33.44%NM 32.05%EV -3.64%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.95%EV -4.44%E -3.15%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-22 21:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -4.93%E -1.67%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.09%E -2.16%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-22 23:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.93%E -1.67%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.44%E -3.15%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-22 22:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.93%E -1.67%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.44%E -3.15%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-22 22:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.93%E -1.67%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.44%E -3.15%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-22 22:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.93%E -1.67%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.44%E -3.15%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-22 22:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.93%E -1.67%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.44%E -3.15%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-22 22:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.93%E -1.67%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.12%E -3.66%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-22 19:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.57%EV -5.25%E -1.79%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.43%EV -3.76%E -2.65%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-22 22:08 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -5.89%E -2.02%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -4.44%E -3.15%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-22 21:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.09%E -2.16%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-22 23:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.09%E -2.16%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-22 23:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.76%E -2.65%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-22 23:29 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.76%E -2.65%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-22 23:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.76%E -2.65%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-22 23:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.76%E -2.65%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-22 23:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.76%E -2.65%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-22 23:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.76%E -2.65%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-22 23:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.76%E -2.65%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-22 13:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.76%E -2.65%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-22 13:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -4.44%E -3.15%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-22 22:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -4.44%E -3.15%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-22 22:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.12%E -3.66%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-22 19:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.12%E -3.66%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-22 19:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.12%E -3.66%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-22 19:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.12%E -3.66%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-22 21:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.54%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.12%E -3.66%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-22 13:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.18%E -2.49%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.12%E -3.66%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-22 23:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -7.83%E -2.74%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -1.73%E -1.19%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-22 23:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -7.83%E -2.74%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -1.73%E -1.19%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-22 23:29 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.15%E -2.86%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.76%E -2.65%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-22 21:28 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -9.76%E -3.49%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -1.73%E -1.19%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-22 23:27 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -9.76%E -3.49%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.47%EV -8.51%E -6.30%K -24.31%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-22 22:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -11.37%E -4.14%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.12%E -3.66%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-22 23:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -12.98%E -4.81%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -5.12%E -3.66%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-22 23:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 0.9% | 2026-07-22 13:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 0.9% | 2026-07-22 12:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 1.2% | 2026-07-22 23:29 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 1.2% | 2026-07-22 23:20 |
| Novig◎ | 3.08I 32.47%NM 32.01% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.99% | 1.4% | 2026-07-22 23:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.72% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.28% | 1.7% | 2026-07-22 23:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78% | 1.8% | 2026-07-22 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78% | 1.8% | 2026-07-22 23:20 |