The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Phoenix Mercury v New York Liberty

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 19:04 UTC

Final: Phoenix Mercury 92–94 New York Liberty

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Phoenix Mercury (Local)

Prediction 42.56%2.35fair odd
EV +2.14%
Edge +0.892%
Kelly +1.53%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.05%42.44%42.56%43.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.262.262.4047.17%44.24%44.25%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Liberty (Visit)

Prediction 57.44%1.74fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -3.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.68%57.56%57.44%59.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.651.651.7064.10%60.71%60.61%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Phoenix Mercury (Local): 42.56%; New York Liberty (Visit): 57.44%. For Phoenix Mercury (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.35. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV +2.14%E +0.892%K +1.53%G +0.033%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -7.52%E -4.67%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-01 18:08
BetAnything🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV +0.014%E +0.006%K +0.010%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -5.22%E -3.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-01 18:50
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV +0.014%E +0.006%K +0.010%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -5.22%E -3.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-01 13:39
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV +0.014%E +0.006%K +0.010%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -6.95%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 18:00
Fliff🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +0.014%E +0.006%K +0.010%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -9.82%E -6.25%K -17.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 18:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -0.837%E -0.359%K -0.630%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -5.22%E -3.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-01 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -0.837%E -0.359%K -0.630%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -5.22%E -3.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-01 18:55
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%EV -2.11%E -0.919%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%EV -2.35%E -1.38%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-01 18:48
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%EV -2.11%E -0.919%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%EV -2.35%E -1.38%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-01 18:48
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.11%E -0.919%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-01 11:59
GTbets🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.11%E -0.919%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-01 18:15
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.11%E -0.919%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.22%E -3.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 18:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.11%E -0.919%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.95%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 17:59
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.11%E -0.919%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.95%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.11%E -0.919%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.95%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 18:59
Bally Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.11%E -0.919%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.95%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 18:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.97%E -1.30%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.22%E -3.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-01 19:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.97%E -1.30%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.22%E -3.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-01 19:00
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.97%E -1.30%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.22%E -3.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-01 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.97%E -1.30%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.22%E -3.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-01 19:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.97%E -1.30%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.22%E -3.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-01 19:00
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.97%E -1.30%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.22%E -3.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-01 19:00
MyBookie.ag🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.09%EV -3.39%E -1.49%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -5.22%E -3.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-01 18:50
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -3.82%E -1.69%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 18:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.92%E -1.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-01 18:44
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.80%E -3.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 13:09
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.80%E -3.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 19:00
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.80%E -3.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 19:00
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.95%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 17:30
FanDuel🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -4.67%E -2.08%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -4.65%E -2.80%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-01 18:40
Bet Right🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -4.67%E -2.08%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -5.22%E -3.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 18:15
Caesars🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -5.52%E -2.49%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -2.92%E -1.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-01 18:52
Coolbet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -5.52%E -2.49%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%EV -5.80%E -3.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-01 18:14
ReBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -5.94%E -2.69%K -4.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 18:59
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 09:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 09:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 09:35
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 18:59
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.22%E -3.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-01 18:39
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.95%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-01 17:50
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -7.22%E -3.31%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -5.22%E -3.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-01 18:49
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -7.22%E -3.31%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -5.22%E -3.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-01 18:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.94%EV -8.07%E -3.74%K -6.96%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.06%EV -10.39%E -6.66%K -18.56%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-01 19:00
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -8.50%E -3.95%K -7.39%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -6.95%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-01 18:59
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.32%EV -9.77%E -4.61%K -8.73%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.68%EV -6.95%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-01 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%0.5%2026-08-01 19:00
Matchbook◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%0.5%2026-08-01 19:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%0.8%2026-08-01 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%0.8%2026-08-01 18:55
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-08-01 14:25
Novig◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62%1.5%2026-08-01 19:00
ProphetX◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.73%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.27%1.5%2026-08-01 19:00
Polymarket◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%1.9%2026-08-01 19:00

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