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Phoenix Mercury v Las Vegas Aces
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Phoenix Mercury (Local)
Prediction 20.79%4.81fair odd
EV +13.93%
Edge +2.54%
Kelly +3.11%
Growth +0.433%
assuming max odds 5.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.22%20.75%20.82%23.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.564.505.4825.00%21.93%22.22%18.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Las Vegas Aces (Visit)
Prediction 79.21%1.26fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -7.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.92%79.25%79.18%82.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.201.201.2487.72%83.35%83.33%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Phoenix Mercury (Local): 20.79%; Las Vegas Aces (Visit): 79.21%. For Phoenix Mercury (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.81. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.93%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 5.48I 18.25%NM 17.22%EV +13.93%E +2.54%K +3.11%G +0.433% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.78%EV -9.70%E -8.51%K -69.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-25 02:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%EV +3.95%E +0.789%K +0.987%G +0.039% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%EV +3.95%E +0.789%K +0.987%G +0.039% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV +3.95%E +0.789%K +0.987%G +0.039% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -5.74%E -4.82%K -30.21%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -0.211%E -0.044%K -0.056%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -6.53%E -5.54%K -36.29%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-25 02:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -1.25%E -0.263%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-24 14:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -1.25%E -0.263%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-24 20:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -1.25%E -0.263%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -6.53%E -5.54%K -36.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -1.25%E -0.263%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -6.53%E -5.54%K -36.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -2.29%E -0.487%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -6.53%E -5.54%K -36.29%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-25 02:03 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.64I 21.55%NM 20.82%EV -3.54%E -0.762%K -0.972%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.18%EV -3.36%E -2.76%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.37%E -0.950%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.37%E -0.950%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.37%E -0.950%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-25 01:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.37%E -0.950%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-25 01:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.37%E -0.950%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -5.74%E -4.82%K -30.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-25 01:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.73%EV -5.41%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.74%E -4.82%K -30.21%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-25 01:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.36%E -2.76%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-24 21:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.36%E -2.76%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-24 21:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.36%E -2.76%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-25 01:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.16%E -3.43%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-25 01:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.16%E -3.43%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.16%E -3.43%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.16%E -3.43%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.16%E -3.43%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.16%E -3.43%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.16%E -3.43%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.16%E -3.43%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.16%E -3.43%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-24 21:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-24 21:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-24 21:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-24 20:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-24 20:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.45%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-25 01:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -8.53%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.36%E -2.76%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-25 01:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -8.53%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.36%E -2.76%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-24 21:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -8.53%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.16%E -3.43%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-25 01:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.53%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-25 01:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.05%EV -9.57%E -2.20%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.95%EV -8.12%E -7.00%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-25 02:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -9.98%E -2.31%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.73%EV -7.32%E -6.26%K -43.08%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-25 01:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -10.61%E -2.47%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -1.78%E -1.43%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-25 01:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.10%EV -10.61%E -2.47%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.90%EV -8.91%E -7.75%K -59.39%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-25 02:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -12.68%E -3.02%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.36%E -2.76%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-24 19:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -16.84%E -4.21%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -4.95%E -4.12%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-25 01:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-09-25 02:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-09-25 02:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-09-25 02:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26% | 1.3% | 2026-09-25 02:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26% | 1.3% | 2026-09-24 14:50 |
| Novig◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26% | 1.3% | 2026-09-25 02:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.39% | 2.0% | 2026-09-25 01:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.40% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.60% | 2.1% | 2026-09-25 02:05 |