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Phoenix Mercury v Dallas Wings
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Phoenix Mercury (Local)
Prediction 33.85%2.95fair odd
EV +1.56%
Edge +0.520%
Kelly +0.781%
Growth +0.012%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.35%33.89%34.00%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.842.853.0037.74%35.23%35.09%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Dallas Wings (Visit)
Prediction 66.15%1.51fair odd
EV -0.781%
Edge -0.520%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.16%66.11%66.00%68.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.431.431.5073.53%69.90%69.93%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Phoenix Mercury (Local): 33.85%; Dallas Wings (Visit): 66.15%. For Phoenix Mercury (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.95. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.56%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV +1.56%E +0.520%K +0.781%G +0.012% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -6.07%E -4.28%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV +1.56%E +0.520%K +0.781%G +0.012% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -9.38%E -6.85%K -25.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-22 01:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -0.131%E -0.045%K -0.067%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -5.41%E -3.78%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-21 22:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -0.131%E -0.045%K -0.067%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -6.07%E -4.28%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-21 17:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -0.131%E -0.045%K -0.067%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -6.07%E -4.28%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -1.15%E -0.393%K -0.597%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -6.73%E -4.78%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -1.15%E -0.393%K -0.597%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -6.73%E -4.78%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.82%E -0.629%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.40%E -5.28%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-21 06:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.82%E -0.629%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.40%E -5.28%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-21 06:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.82%E -0.629%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.40%E -5.28%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-21 06:33 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.82%E -0.629%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.40%E -5.28%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -2.16%E -0.748%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -4.75%E -3.30%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -2.50%E -0.868%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.40%E -5.28%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.75%E -3.30%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.75%E -3.30%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-22 01:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.41%E -3.78%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-22 00:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.41%E -3.78%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-22 00:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.41%E -3.78%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-22 00:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.41%E -3.78%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-22 00:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.41%E -3.78%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-22 00:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.41%E -3.78%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-22 00:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.41%E -3.78%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-22 00:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.41%E -3.78%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-22 00:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.41%E -3.78%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-22 00:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.41%E -3.78%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-22 00:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.07%E -4.28%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-22 01:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.40%E -5.28%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-22 02:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.40%E -5.28%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -3.86%E -1.36%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -4.75%E -3.30%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-21 08:48 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -4.19%E -1.48%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -2.76%E -1.88%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-22 01:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.35%EV -4.87%E -1.73%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.65%EV -2.76%E -1.88%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-22 01:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12%EV -0.781%E -0.520%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-09-22 01:47 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12%EV -0.781%E -0.520%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-09-22 01:48 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.43%E -2.35%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-22 01:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.09%E -2.82%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-22 00:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.09%E -2.82%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-21 00:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.75%E -3.30%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.75%E -3.30%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-22 01:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.07%E -4.28%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-20 20:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.79I 35.84%NM 33.73%EV -5.55%E -1.99%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.27%EV -6.07%E -4.28%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.05%EV -6.23%E -2.25%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.95%EV -5.41%E -3.78%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-22 01:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -3.43%E -2.35%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-21 00:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -3.43%E -2.35%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-21 00:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.40%E -5.28%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-21 23:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -8.59%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -0.781%E -0.520%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.59%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.40%E -5.28%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.50%EV -8.59%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.50%EV -10.04%E -7.38%K -27.89%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-22 00:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -10.29%E -3.88%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.10%E -1.42%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 0.8% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |
| Polymarket◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 1.0% | 2026-09-21 07:29 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 1.0% | 2026-09-22 01:40 |
| Novig◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 1.0% | 2026-09-22 01:54 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.18% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.82% | 1.1% | 2026-09-22 01:49 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.63% | 1.3% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.63% | 1.3% | 2026-09-22 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.63% | 1.3% | 2026-09-22 01:59 |