The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Phoenix Mercury v Chicago Sky

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Phoenix Mercury (Local)

Prediction 63.92%1.56fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -5.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.65%63.92%63.92%64.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.491.501.5269.44%67.17%66.89%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chicago Sky (Visit)

Prediction 36.08%2.77fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -0.819%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.35%36.08%36.08%37.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.632.622.7139.22%38.10%38.17%36.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Phoenix Mercury (Local): 63.92%; Chicago Sky (Visit): 36.08%. For Chicago Sky (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.71, with an expected value of -2.22%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.84%E -1.87%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -7.99%E -3.13%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.84%E -1.87%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -7.99%E -3.13%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 18:29
MyBookie.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.12%E -2.75%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.47%E -2.09%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 18:23
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.12%E -2.75%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.19%E -2.38%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 21:14
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.52%EV -4.76%E -3.20%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.48%EV -2.22%E -0.819%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-23 18:30
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42%EV -5.40%E -3.65%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58%EV -3.30%E -1.23%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-23 18:20
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.65%EV -6.68%E -4.57%K -14.52%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.35%EV -3.66%E -1.37%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 18:20
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.96%E -5.53%K -18.08%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.47%E -2.09%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 18:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-04-24 02:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-04-24 02:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-04-24 02:05