The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Minnesota Lynx v Toronto Tempo

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 00:02 UTC

Final: Minnesota Lynx 73–66 Toronto Tempo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Minnesota Lynx (Local)

Prediction 66.64%1.50fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -2.80%
Kelly -9.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.27%66.64%66.51%67.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.421.421.4471.43%70.42%70.42%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Tempo (Visit)

Prediction 33.36%3.00fair odd
EV -0.920%
Edge -0.310%
Kelly -0.467%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.04%33.36%33.49%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.872.882.9736.36%34.90%34.78%33.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Minnesota Lynx (Local): 66.64%; Toronto Tempo (Visit): 33.36%. For Toronto Tempo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.00. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.97, with an expected value of -0.920%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.04%E -2.80%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.92%E -1.73%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-01 23:59
Fanatics🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.71%E -3.29%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.25%E -1.12%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-01 23:59
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%EV -4.71%E -3.29%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%EV -5.26%E -1.85%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-01 23:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.37%E -3.78%K -12.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -3.25%E -1.12%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-01 23:59
Neds🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.37%E -3.78%K -12.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -3.25%E -1.12%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-01 23:59
SportsBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.43%EV -5.37%E -3.78%K -12.79%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.57%EV -6.26%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-01 23:59
MyBookie.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.96%EV -6.70%E -4.79%K -16.76%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.04%EV -0.920%E -0.310%K -0.467%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 00:00
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.70%E -4.79%K -16.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.26%E -3.00%K -4.72%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 00:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.46I 68.49%NM 65.16%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.84%5.1%2026-05-02 00:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%7.6%2026-05-01 23:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%7.6%2026-05-02 00:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%7.6%2026-05-01 23:59
ProphetX◎1.45I 68.97%NM 54.83%1.76I 56.82%NM 45.17%25.8%2026-05-02 00:00