The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Dallas Wings v Las Vegas Aces

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 23:06 UTC

Final: Dallas Wings 101–84 Las Vegas Aces

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dallas Wings (Local)

Prediction 37.71%2.65fair odd
EV -1.20%
Edge -0.459%
Kelly -0.742%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.47%37.71%38.12%39.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.522.502.6241.67%39.75%40.00%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Las Vegas Aces (Visit)

Prediction 62.29%1.61fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -3.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.45%62.29%61.88%64.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.521.541.5769.44%65.67%64.94%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dallas Wings (Local): 37.71%; Las Vegas Aces (Visit): 62.29%. For Dallas Wings (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.62, with an expected value of -1.20%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -1.20%E -0.459%K -0.742%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -10.30%E -7.15%K -23.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 23:05
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.96%E -0.752%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.56%E -4.38%K -13.13%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 23:05
SportsBet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.36%EV -2.33%E -0.901%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.64%EV -7.81%E -5.28%K -16.27%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 23:05
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.73%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.83%E -1.81%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-03 23:05
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.73%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.07%E -2.64%K -7.54%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 23:04
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -9.50%E -3.96%K -6.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.20%E -1.40%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 23:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -9.50%E -3.96%K -6.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.20%E -1.40%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%3.2%2026-05-03 22:58
ProphetX◎2.52I 39.68%NM 35.05%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.95%13.2%2026-05-03 23:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-05-03 23:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-05-03 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-05-03 23:05