The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Connecticut Sun v New York Liberty

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 21:00 UTC

Final: Connecticut Sun 67–79 New York Liberty

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Connecticut Sun (Local)

Prediction 23.00%4.35fair odd
EV +1.21%
Edge +0.276%
Kelly +0.357%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.71%22.88%23.00%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.994.034.4026.67%25.08%24.84%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Liberty (Visit)

Prediction 77.00%1.30fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -5.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.55%77.12%77.00%78.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.241.241.2883.33%80.56%80.65%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Connecticut Sun (Local): 23.00%; New York Liberty (Visit): 77.00%. For Connecticut Sun (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.35. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV +1.21%E +0.276%K +0.357%G +0.004%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.56%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-03 19:50
Fanatics🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-03 20:50
BoyleSports🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -7.60%E -6.34%K -38.02%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 20:50
SportsBet🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -6.84%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -5.29%E -4.30%K -23.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 20:40
FanDuel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 20:40
Neds🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -13.74%E -3.66%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -1.44%E -1.13%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 20:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -13.74%E -3.66%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -1.44%E -1.13%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 20:55
Paddy Power🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -13.74%E -3.66%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 19:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎4.03I 24.81%NM 23.53%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.47%5.5%2026-05-03 20:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%6.7%2026-05-03 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%6.7%2026-05-03 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%6.7%2026-05-03 20:00
ProphetX◎4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%7.0%2026-05-03 20:55